Picking The Academy Awards; A Primer

For Years Our Family Has Been Involved In Contests Picking The Winners Of The Academy Awards

Doing this, I believe that I have learned a few things. For example, you never pick which movie you hope wins, because it never works. Someone would probably do a better job picking if they had not seen any movies. Never listen to newspaper critics for they are always picking arts and craft movies.

You Might Consider Checking The Different Guilds And See Who They Selected From Their Competitor

The Director’s Guild, Producer’s Guild for best picture, Actors Guild, etc. Last year I did well doing this except I broke one of my rules. I saw Moonlight and didn’t like it so I voted La La Land. For a few minutes I thought that I won, but the accountants handed over the wrong envelope.

If there is any confusion, I then check the Las Vegas odds as these people have a lot of experience. Finally, I have found a good site that does a survey of how many other people voted, and it is called Golden Derby. A collaboration like Zagat and Yelp for restaurants.

This Year The Directors Picked:

  • Guillermo De Toro, The Shape of Water
  • The Producers Guild picked The Shape of Water
  • The Actors Guild picked 3 Billboards
  • Some others: Screen Writers: Original-Get Out
  • Adapted-Call Me Your Name
  • Cinematography-Blade Runner
  • Make-Up-Darkest Hour
  • Sound-Darkest Hour (seems to always go to the loudest)
  • Visual Effects-Blade Runner
  • Costume-Shape of Water
  • Best Song-From CoCo
  • Foreign-Fantastic Woman
  • Best Short Documentary-Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • Live Animation-Coco
  • Score-Shape of Water
  • Short Film-DeKalb Elementary
  • Documentary Feature-Faces Places
  • Short Film Animated-Dear Basketball (of course, Kobi)

For The Four Acting Categories The Actors Guild And Vegas And Golden Derby And Duane Gomer All Agree:

Francis, Rockwell, Oldman, and Janney.

The one category that has a lot of opinions is best movie; some say 3 Billboards and some say The Shape of Water. Since the Actors Guild has the most members and therefore the most votes, I am picking 3 Billboards although my favorite movie of the year is Wind River with Jeremy Renner, with Taylor Sheridan the Director and Writer.

Final Word:

On 23 of the Categories the members vote and it is most first place vote’s wins. In Best Picture, not so. The 7,258 members rank the movies nominated from one to nine (changed from only five in 2009-now from 5 up to possible 10).

Now it gets confusing. The first place ballots are totaled. If one movie gets over 50%, the counting ends. The one movie with the least votes is eliminated. Each ballot for that movie is then awarded to the movie that the individual movie had picked for second place. They total again and again until one movie gets 50%. Takes a while. Some critics say that this method does not fete the best movie, but the least disliked wins.

See you at the movies.

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